Demographics study projects student population to flatten in elementary schools, increase in middle and high schools

Homewood parents heard the results of several months of demographic study tonight, as the firm Cooperative Strategies presented its findings at the Board of Education offices.

Cooperative Strategies' recommendation was that Homewood City Schools prepare for a short term spike in student population but a 10-year growth of only 3 percent. The elementary schools are projected to flatten or decrease slightly over time, with the middle school growing slightly and the high school growing by about 18 percent. Scott Leopold of Cooperative Strategies said their results were based on current enrollment numbers, housing trends across the city, live birth rates and statistical models to project likely enrollment in the future. 

Leopold showed a geographical analysis of the city over time, showing that more students have become concentrated in Edgewood single-family homes and West Homewood multi-family homes between the 07-08 school year and the 16-17 school year. Multi-family units, such as apartments, in Homewood also have about double the average student yield compared to other cities.

The current top areas of the city for student population are Hollywood, the Valora at Homewood apartments (formerly the Overlook at Homewood), Edgemont, the Park at Buckingham apartments, Mayfair, Edgewood Park and Grove Park. Though Homewood is "pretty much built out," Leopold said, Homewood's student population has grown as younger families have moved in and, in some cases, renovated or replaced their homes to make more space for children.

Homewood has historically seen a "survival ratio" exceeding 100 percent, meaning that the student body entering kindergarten exceeds the live birth rate for those children's birth year, usually due to families moving into the area. From 07-08 to 16-17, Homewood's total school system population increased from 3,387 to 4,106, with a peak in kindergarten enrollment during 13-14.

Over those 10 years, Edgewood experienced the most dramatic growth, at 46 percent, with Hall-Kent at 30 percent growth and Shades Cahaba at only 1 percent. Homewood Middle grew 26 percent over the decade and Homewood High grew 12 percent, though as students grow up the spikes seen at the elementary level will occur in the middle and high schools.

The steady birth rate and limited number of residential building permits in the city, as well as census data, were among the reasons “we’re projecting a flattening or leveling out at elementary school,” Leopold said, with kindergarten enrollment to hold steady around 310 students by the 26-27 school year. Cooperative Strategies projected both HMS and HHS would grow at first, then decline again over the next 10 years.

The low and high projections, which were also included in the presentation, followed the same growth and decline trend.

One concern for those present at tonight's meeting was that the data didn't factor in the possibility of West Homewood following in the steps of Edgewood over the next few years, with more families and larger homes replacing existing ones. Leopold said there is currently no data to support that outcome in their projection modeling, though that could change if Hall-Kent or West Homewood overall see a spike in students over the next couple years.

Residents shared their observations that pointed to greater student density in West Homewood in the coming years, which Leopold said is possible. Cooperative Strategies created a model with Hall-Kent experiencing similar growth as Edgewood, and Leopold said the outcome would be around 230 additional students across the school system - most at the elementary level - by the 26-27 year.

“It’s a projection that needs to be reviewed and updated based on observed data," Leopold said. “It is a current unknown compared to the kids that are already in the system.”

Greg Ellis of Hoar Program Management, which is managing the project for the school system, said this will factor into options HPM presents to the school board, while also attempting to avoid overestimating growth and choosing to expand Hall-Kent too much.

Lastly, Leopold also compared the current high school site with two sites that have been considered: on Valley Avenue and near West Homewood Park. At the current Lakeshore Drive campus, 41 percent of students are within two driving miles of the school and 97 percent are within four miles, with 4.5 miles being about the maximum distance driven.

The Valley Avenue location, near HMS on a former apartment complex property, is within two miles by road for about 42 percent of students, with 93 percent within four miles and the maximum driving distance about five miles. About 24 percent of students could reach the West Homewood site in two driving miles or less and 82 percent in four miles or less, with the maximum distance being 5.5 miles.

“The West Homewood site is poorly positioned when we compare it to both the current high school site and the Valley Avenue site” based on current enrollment, Leopold said, though the maximum driving distance is a difference of only one mile.

Leopold said it's possible for Cooperative Strategies to review the data again in the future and update predictions based on more current data. Superintendent Bill Cleveland said the school system will be working with Cooperative Strategies and HPM to review options for how to increase the school system's capacity.

This includes not only enrollment projections, but also the community surveys HPM conducted and school site visits done over the summer.

Cleveland said Homewood City Schools' target classroom size is 18 students in the elementary level and 23 in the middle or high school level, which the system is continuing to work toward. As one example of current space constraints, Cleveland said the assistant principal at Hall-Kent chose to give up her office space to be used as a special education classroom.

Depending on the options available to them, Cleveland said HCS may not be able to achieve everything it needs with the $55 million it is receiving from the city's bond issue, but they can get started on working toward those solutions.

Cleveland said parents should hear from the school system before Labor Day about public involvement meetings to develop these options. A video of tonight's meeting has been posted at the HCS website, with a copy of the presentation slides to be added by Monday, Aug. 14.