The new playbook

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This is part 1 of a 2-part series examining the rapidly changing landscape of college sports. Read Part 2, Updating the playbook: Paying the athletes here.

George French is preparing as if he is already in the big leagues.

As a rising senior at Homewood High School, French aspires to one day play Division I college football.

“I keep my social media professional — like I’m already a big-time player — because that’s what I want to be,” the Patriots defensive back said.

But he doesn’t just talk the talk — he also attempts to walk the walk.

“In day-to-day life, you have to watch what you do and make smart decisions,” French said. “You have to watch who you surround yourself with and where you go.”

French said his coaches at Homewood have educated and encouraged players on how to best present themselves to prospective schools.

“Our coaches emphasize that if you do everything you’re supposed to do — in the classroom, in the weight room and on the football field — you’ll start to see the results,” he said. “They tell us to control what we can and let everything else fall into place.”

Controlling what one can has become even more important in today’s college athletics landscape.

“There are fewer scholarship spots,” said ESPN recruiting analyst Tom Luginbill. “Now instead of divvying up all their scholarships at the high school level, now they’re going to get 12-14 guys out of the portal. The spots have become limited.”

SHIFTING SAND

Coaches are no longer building around potential. They’re buying certainty. Between the rise of the transfer portal, the explosion of Name, Image and Likeness (NIL) dollars, and the impending House v. NCAA court settlement — which could allow direct revenue-sharing paychecks from schools to athletes — the entire scholarship model has changed.

For high school seniors, that means fewer opportunities. Unless you’re elite, the message is clear: wait your turn — or get left behind.

In place of the old system is a new billion-dollar industry in which high school prospects are still commodities — just ones with less value than they held before the money started flowing.

Not all college programs play on the same field. The Power Four conferences — the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC — have TV deals, booster collectives and NIL opportunities.

Below them are Group of Five schools like UAB, Jacksonville State or Troy — with fewer scholarships, smaller budgets and less exposure. Then come FCS, D2 and junior colleges, where many now land by necessity.

THE PORTAL JAM

For decades, high school football was the bedrock of college recruiting. Talent rose, coaches scouted, scholarships followed and dreams materialized on National Signing Day.

That world is gone.

It started with COVID. In 2020, the NCAA granted all athletes an extra year of eligibility. That decision created a massive traffic jam. Fifth-year seniors stayed. Sixth-year players reclassified. Scholarships that would have gone to high school seniors disappeared.

Then came NIL. In July 2021, athletes could finally earn money off their name, image and likeness. But what was meant to reward marketability became a loosely disguised pay-for-play market.

“Monetary compensation is no longer based on results,” Luginbill said. “It’s not about ‘if I produce, schools will want me.’ Now, it’s ‘how much are you going to pay me to play here?’ There’s no accountability from the player’s side, and that’s not what NIL was intended for — certainly not in recruiting.”

At the same time, the transfer portal exploded. The NCAA removed the sit-out rule for first-time transfers, and a flood of player movement followed. A new reality emerged: Why recruit a high school senior you’ll have to develop when you can buy a 22-year-old with experience?

“Unless you’ve been tampered with or have significant production, you’re either transferring down or walking on somewhere,” Luginbill said. “The math doesn’t add up. There just aren’t enough roster spots. There is a false level of value that the kids place on themselves or the people around them place on them. We’re talking about thousands of kids.”

According to On3 Sports, more than 4,000 FBS football players entered the NCAA transfer portal during this cycle — and more than 1,600 are still looking for a home. In men’s basketball, 2,320 players entered the portal this spring, per Verbal Commits — a jump of more than 11 percent from last year, and nearly 2.5 times more than five years ago.

This isn’t just a revenue-sport issue. Since the NCAA eliminated its one-year sit-out rule in 2021, tens of thousands of athletes across all sports have entered the portal — many of them two, three or even four times. Each year of the NIL era has accelerated the cycle. In 2024, the NCAA opened the door to unlimited transfers.

Combine that with the backlog of COVID players, and the result is a recruiting funnel that narrows further every season. And it’s about to get even tighter, as schools prepare for revenue sharing and potential roster caps tied to the House settlement.

Coach Trent Dilfer came to UAB with a plan to build his program through high school recruiting — but that vision didn’t hold. He watched promising redshirt freshmen get poached, impact players leave mid-development and recruiting calendars shift. Now, he’s saving scholarships for older transfers. Like most coaches, he’s frustrated by the chaos and eager for structure.

“All I need is guardrails, all I need is boundaries, all I need is where it is,” Dilfer told Birmingham’s CBS 42. “I don't care where the goal post is, just keep it stationary… Because right now this goal post is going around 360 degrees because there’s zero leadership, there’s zero boundaries, there’s zero guardrails.”

MANAGING EXPECTATIONS

But this isn’t just about numbers. It’s about expectations — and the widening gap between what kids believe they’re walking into and what actually waits.

For years, high school athletes have been surrounded by talk of NIL money, brand building and recruiting leverage. Highlight reels and camp circuits — all of it reinforcing the same narrative: play well, get noticed, get paid. But most never make it that far.

“High school kids now believe they’re entitled to compensation,” Luginbill said. “But the original intent was that if a college athlete… became a marketable commodity, they could earn income. That’s light years from what we’re

doing.”

Even for players who eventually cash in, the road usually starts somewhere less glamorous — a Group of Five school, a redshirt year, a position change, a climb.

“The transfer portal has made it harder for high schoolers to land spots at Power Four programs,” said Jim Cavale, CEO of Athletes.org. “Starting at a Group of Five school and working your way up may be the best path.”

BACK-END FALLOUT

While these dynamics affect every sport, the epicenter is football and men’s basketball — where the bulk of the money flows and the pressure to win immediately is highest.

According to research on signing day trends, once-powerhouse programs are producing fewer high-major

signees and more D2, JUCO and NAIA placements. In other sports — baseball, wrestling, lacrosse, even track — the scholarship slots are already shrinking. If roster caps go into effect, they may vanish altogether.

Whatever happens next — roster limits, direct pay, new NIL rules — the path for high school athletes is narrowing fast. And for players like French, that means more than just navigating offers. It means trying to stay in the game.

“It has been twice as hard for players in my class to earn attention, now that college coaches spend a lot of attention on portal guys,” French said. “That is why I have been preparing myself in all aspects of my life to be ready when the time comes.”

French has the tone of a player set out to prove he belongs.

“I know I need to be on the same level physically and mentally as those other guys,” he said. “That’s what drives me, and I push myself every day to reach that.”

Look for part two of The New Playbook in next month’s issue: Current college athletes from our communities reflect on navigating NIL transfers and what direct pay from schools could mean next.